Everyday Homicides in the nation Fall 37% During Claudia Sheinbaum, According to Government Statistics

The typical figure of daily murders per month in the country has fallen by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, according to recent government statistics. Nevertheless, security analysts have advised that murder data might not indicate better national safety.

Notable Decline in Daily Averages

There was an average of almost 55 homicides a day in November as opposed to almost 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum began the leadership in September. This data was provided by the chief of the nation's national safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The outcome in killings that we have seen during these past months is remarkably notable,” Claudia Sheinbaum said, explaining that last month the least figure of homicides were documented for any November in the past 10 years.

Recent Context and Official Plan

Violent drug cartel internal conflicts, coupled with the administration's heavily militarised campaigns to take on the drug gangs, have caused Mexico’s murder rate rise sharply in recent years. The rate peaked at a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the country’s national statistics office.

That gave Mexico a murder figure over four times greater than that of the United States. However, murders have been on the downward trend, dropping to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Claudia Sheinbaum has credited her public safety strategy for an seemingly sharper reduction in homicides this year.

At a media briefing in August, the President stated: “We have a strategy, we have tracking of the plan, and there is detailed monitoring town by town in some cases. The plan is effective. And we have to persist at it daily.”

The main elements of Sheinbaum’s security strategy include:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s federal guard.
• Advancing information gathering and investigation efforts.
• Increased coordination between various authorities.

Expert Skepticism and Statistical Concerns

But, public safety experts cautioned that relying on murder statistics to paint a picture of pacification was problematic. This is particularly true in light of the uptick in other crimes such as forced disappearances.

“It would be positive news if this was a drop, but I think we can’t just look at the homicide data and think: ‘Alright, good,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's cartels. “I would be tentatively optimistic.”

Per the policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, murders in total declined by over 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year relative to the same timeframe last year. Yet, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in some states have surged by up to 200%.

“Numbers on murders is no longer useful for estimating the situation of insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and investigators who do not have the capacity or the desire to properly recognize and categorize remains. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the ability to mask violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on monthly means of daily killings was also concerning because it may mask days when there were notably elevated numbers of killings.

“Using the daily average makes surges of violent crime invisible,” he concluded.

Detentions and Confiscations as Metrics of Success

Where the government can highlight the success of its safety plan is on arrests and seizures. Almost 40,000 suspects were arrested between October 2024 and November 2025 for high-impact offenses, according to government figures. Over 20,000 weapons were confiscated and 311 tonnes of narcotics seized.

“Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the tactical weakening of organised crime. It’s extremely in political terms profitable,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Public Frustration

Yet despite these actions, Mexico continues to be grappling with high violence, with a number of regions in the midst of cartel-fueled bloodshed. In the previous month there was a high-profile assassination of a well-liked local official in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors killed in the past 12 months.

Weeks after, thousands of young people protested in Mexico City and across the nation to show their outrage at corruption and narco-violence.

“The administration presents [data] in a manner to build a picture of improvement. Politically it’s highly effective, socially it’s extremely debatable,” Vargas concluded.