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The Ashes may offer one cause for celebration, but this contest will also see the Aussie side host more birthday parties than Timezone in the 90s. New boy Jake Weatherald had his thirty-first birthday a day before the squad was announced. Nathan Lyon celebrates 38 the day before the Test in Perth. Beau Webster turns 32 just before the Brisbane match, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on day two in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood becomes 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 by the time January is out.

Older Team Interest Grows

For two or three years there has been mounting curiosity with the average age of this team and especially the bowling unit. It is unusual to have almost every player near a Test team being over 30, except for young mascot Cameron Green and occasional visitor Sam Konstas. But it didn’t logically follow that older age was a disadvantage: a Test squad featuring a four-man attack with over 1,500 wickets between them is scarcely a weakness, and it stands to reason that all of those bowlers are well into their careers.

I've never felt this sure at the start of an Ashes tour | a former player

Perhaps what really highlighted the discussion is that the backup bowlers over that time, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also well into their thirties. Younger bowlers have floated into teams – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before vanishing for years with injuries, meaning there has been no obvious replacement plan.

Transition Imposed by Setbacks

So far, that hasn't been an issue, as the Big Four plus Boland have kept on performing. Any team knows that having a group of similarly-aged players might mean a group of similarly-timed departures, but so far transition has remained theoretical: a train that would certainly be coming round the bend when she comes, but one that had not steamed into view.

Now, abruptly, transition is upon them, forced upon this Aussie team in the span of a short period. The spinal issue to Pat Cummins was taken in stride: he would likely only sit out the opening match, was the team management assessment, and as the first-change bowler behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could easily be replaced by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has been sidelined with a hamstring injury, the balance undergoes a much more significant shift with two players absent rather than one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two accurate right-arm bowlers give the stability and precision that allows Starc’s left-arm pace and swing to be used more as a weapon of attack. Missing both of them means a fundamental shift in the balance of the team. Boland taking the new ball is nothing new in his first-class career, but he has been so successful in Tests coming on after seven or eight overs of early pressure. Now he’ll likely have to be the opening bowler.

Debutant Faces Expectations

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at 31 years old himself won’t be an overawed youth, but he might become an overawed 31-year-old. A packed stadium, partly English, for the first Test of a eagerly awaited Ashes series will not make for an simple first match, no matter how many newspaper profiles describe him as laid-back. He could be wheeled onto the ground on a banana lounge and still be anxious.

Register to The Spin

Who knows, it might all go smoothly for this revamped bowling lineup. It might not work out. What is notable is how rapidly Australia have moved from the surety of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, and others. Who knows what further injuries the opening match may bring. Who knows whether Cummins will be good to go for the Brisbane Test, and good to back up after Brisbane, given how complicated stress injuries can be. Who knows how long Hazlewood might be out, with a history of going down early in tournaments and a history of minor injuries turning into extended absences.

Outlook Uncertain

The back half of the contest may see the main four bowlers reunited and all going well. Or it might see transition setting in much sooner than the stretch goal of 2027 in the UK. Not through Neser, who is seemingly the next option and could be a great pink-ball Brisbane option, but after that with options unclear. Sean Abbott was in the initial squad, though he’s now also hurt and has never played a Test. Richardson has just had his injury-prone arm put back on, and this format is no place for gradually starting one’s work. After them lies the true uncertainty, and throughout it opportunity for the visiting team. You can sense that train a-coming, rolling round the bend, and the English team ain’t seen the success since they don’t know when.